Is the rise of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) the beginning of a new political era in Manipur, or is it a part of the larger manifestation of the growing right-wing politics in the frontier region, which has been long unhindered by Hindutva politics?
As Manipur exhibits historical and cultural deviance from mainstream India, BJP perhaps devised a different strategy in its election manoeuvre. But the larger question is, what makes it possible for BJP to do two contrasting politics in ‘Mainstream India’ and ‘Northeast India’?
As BJP targets to bag 40+ seats in the coming assembly election of Manipur, it resonates with the growing confidence and the maturation of the party in the larger political discourse in recent years. The Manipur assembly election is scheduled in the first quarter of 2022 with Goa, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand.
In the 2017 assembly elections, the BJP bagged 21 seats out of 60 and led the coalition government formed with the support of the Naga People’s Front (NPF), National People’s Party (NPP), Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) and an independent candidate. Despite the Congress party being the single-largest party securing 28 seats, it fell short of forming a government.
On the other hand, there is speculation whether the recently-concluded state assembly elections in Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal would cast a spell on the electoral outcome of Manipur. In Assam, the BJP-led NDA coalition was able to retain power.
The case of Assam invites special attention as it is one of the Northeastern states and serves as a clear reflecting point of the ongoing political situation of the Northeast region. Intriguingly, all eight states of Northeast either have a BJP Chief Minister or a Chief Minister from Northeast Democratic Alliance (NEDA). NEDA is a political coalition force that BJP formed in 2016 to unite the non-Congress party under one umbrella and protect the interests and aspirations of the region. This phenomenon explains the growing dominance of the BJP in the political scene of Northeast India.
In the post-2014 polity, the decline of Congress in Manipur became eminent. The steady decline of the Congress party in the electoral discourse of Manipur has resulted in the creation of a political vacuum.
Whereas BJP has successfully shown their dominance in the political race by aligning with the regional political parties. The influence of regional political parties like Manipur People’s Party (MPP), People Democratic Alliance (PDA), etc., who had once played a major role in the politics of Manipur, slid downhill in the post-cease fire (2001) politics in Manipur. Manipur exhibits a high degree of ethnic politics and regional parties. The parties are primarily based on ethnic roots and have failed to capture the aspirations of the diverse masses.
On the other hand, the departure from the political competition within the political sphere induced the mass exodus of political heavyweights from their original place to BJP, seeing the greater chances of retaining power.
In 2017, when Th. Shyamkumar defected from the Congress party to BJP after winning the election, it sparked a major controversy in the political sphere. The present trend shows the general acceptance in shifting camp as the matter has become a new normal.
For instance, the former president of the Manipur Pradesh Congress Committee (MPCC) Govindas Konthoujam, twelve key members of Naga Peoples Front (NPF), lone Lok Janashakti Party (LJP) MLA Karam Shyam, former Congress MLA from Sagolband constituency RK Imo, Congress MLA from Saikul Constituency, Yamthang Haokip, Congress MLA from Wangkhei constituency, Okram Henry also joined BJP. The list goes on. The current situation in the BJP camp is characterised by the overcrowding of intending candidates, with each constituency having not less than 3 or 4 potential BJP candidates.
The departure of politicians towards the BJP camp has some deep underlying meaning. Firstly, it reflects the general mood and aspirations of the people as the people have gradually endorsed BJP. Secondly, BJP has undoubtedly become the strongest political force in the state.
Part of the explanation to why BJP emerged strongly in Manipur lies in the old formulation of dependency in Northeast politics that denotes the choosing of parallel government in the state and centre. Part and parcel of the reason are that Northeast states survive on the central government’s grants. Yet, this old school explanation doesn’t always hold, as the last decades have shown anomalies of this analysis. Perhaps, the changing mode of governance might have triggered the wide acceptance of BJP in Manipur.
Despite claims of popular politics, the BJP-led coalition government under N Biren Singh has presented the most citizen-centric government in recent times.
Policy changes like ‘Go to Village’ and ‘Go to Hills’ add more rigour in rebuilding the trust between the hill and valley. Earlier, the hill based groups and civil society organisations blamed preceding governments for exercising partiality in governance. Development activities were mostly prioritised in the valley, where the Meitei population is dominant.
On the contrary, the linkages that the N Biren Singh government made with civil societies and ethnic organisations had greatly helped in building a good relationship between people and state. As evident from the significant reduction in the number of bandh, blockades and general strikes and encounters during the BJP government since 2017, undoubtedly, we can infer the improved law-and-order situation of Manipur.
According to the Union Home Ministry, data insurgency-related activities in Northeast India in 2021 has reduced 80% compared to 2014. Manipur has witnessed a constant declining record of insurgency-related cases; from 233 in 2016 to 167 in 2017 and 127 in 2018, according to the MHA security situation report. From lowering the insurgency-related incidents to bringing developments, the present BJP government has surpassed the performance of any government before.
Recently, on the occasion of laying the foundation stone of Rani Gaidinliu Museum, Union Home Minister Amit Shah also said, “Before coming to power in Manipur, we had promised to end bandh, hartal and blockade. We have ended all the three and significantly improved the law and order situation in Manipur.” The positive changes seen in the last four-and-half years of the BJP-led coalition rule in Manipur is hard to ignore.
However, it is intriguing to see how a party with deep ideological leanings has infiltrated a region infamous for its deep ethnic strife and cultural articulation. Unlike the case of BJP mainstream politics, which took a hard stance on Hindutva ideology and Hindu nationalists idea, it is perplexing to know how they navigate its strong ideological commitment with the sub-ideologies of the natives and regional parties.
With the use of the wise word ‘double engine government’, BJP can build up a larger narrative of economic development. And also, on the cultural front, BJP has strategically compromised some of its core foundations in the Northeast theatre. For instance, BJP took the Hindutva ideology at the core of its politics at the national level, promoting Hindu culture and tradition, decreeing cow slaughter, and, most importantly, broadcasting a sense of hyper-nationalism.
Yet, BJP practices a different method of strategy in Northeast India to blend with the Northeast tradition. The BJP presents its most flexible form of outlook in the political theatre of the Northeast. BJP’s apparent consideration of the diversity and the unique history and culture of Manipur resulted in giving special treatment in its policy practices. In the mainstream, BJP’s popular slogan includes ‘Bharat Mata ki Jai’. But in Manipur, BJP prefers using ‘BJP Na Yaiphare’ which means “Victory to BJP or BJP is great” or ‘PM Modi Jina Yaiphare’, which translates as “Prime Minister Modi is great” to capture the interests of locals. These slogans perhaps sidelined the idea of BJP’s Bharat, while it rather attempts to emphasise local narratives.
In 2017, before the assembly election of Meghalaya, the then BJP general secretary Ram Madhav announced that there would be no policy to impose a ban on beef consumption in Northeast India, acknowledging that beef is widely consumed in the region. Also, by signing the ‘Framework Agreement’ with the largest insurgency group, NSCN (IM), in 2015, BJP shows its potential acceptance of counter-narratives in the whole nationalist question.
On the other hand, BJP attains great success in capturing the popular sentiment of the Northeast masses on issues of migrants. In the whole saga of CAA, BJP had appeased the tension in Northeast India by giving a special guard and providing a ‘disoriented’ narrative of the issue. By interpreting the issue of migrants in Northeast India as a case of Bangladeshi influx, BJP has politicised the issue of migrants and sympathised with many masses.
From NRC in Assam to the extension of the Inner Line Permit (ILP) system in Manipur, BJP showcased its apparent concern for counter culture and ethnicity. For Manipur, the demand for ILP had been a long struggle for people. The success in bringing ILP Act, 2019, in Manipur is a major bargaining power for BJP in the forthcoming assembly election. In 2015, the then Congress government in Manipur had drastically failed in drawing up the issue, which necessarily resulted in brewing up tensions between hills and plains.
In a nutshell, maintaining a cordial and peaceful atmosphere to bringing more funds and development to states, and from acknowledging the cultural uniqueness to accommodating the various sub-ethnic demands in national policies, the performance of BJP-led coalition government of Manipur is quite good.
Speculating on the above observation, BJP/BJP-led coalition might come again in Manipur in 2022. Yet, the speculation is not free from apprehensions as the fundamental ideology of BJP is antithetical to the interests of the region. Having said that, it brings out two serious concerns in the politics of Manipur. Firstly, has the BJP given up its commitment to its core ideology in the context of Manipur? Secondly, is BJP playing a sit-and-wait game; waiting for an appropriate time to launch its project by gradually changing the texture of Manipur society? Nevertheless, time will only tell the changing narratives and practices.
The author is a PhD candidate in JNU, New Delhi.
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