Guwahati: The India Meteorological Department has forecast very heavy rains over the Northeast region from August 30 to September 2. As per the prediction, various parts of Assam, including the Kamrup Metro, should experience heavy spells; instead, the only thing that we have witnessed here is excruciatingly humid days with no trace of rains.
So, what explains the difference between predictions and reality? We reached out to to Sanjay O’Neil Shaw, Scientist-F, Regional Meteorological Centre (RMC), Guwahati to understand better.
Speaking to EastMojo, Sanjay O’Neil Shaw said, “The predictions are made based on several observations. The weather is forecast based on surface observation, radar observation, upper air observation, satellite observation, automatic weather stations, among others. We forecast the weather depending upon these observations.”
According to Shaw, the change in the climate and rainfall pattern are some of the reasons for high humidity in the region. There has been deficit rainfall in Manipur and Tripura, while the rest of the places in the region have recorded normal rainfall.
As per the weather forecast for August 30, while widespread rain with some isolated heavy falls and thunderstorms are possible over Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya, scattered rain and thunderstorms have been forecast over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.
On August 31, widespread rain with some isolated heavy falls and thunderstorms is on the cards over Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya. Besides, scattered rain and thunderstorms are possible over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.
Notably, fairly widespread to widespread light or moderate rainfall with isolated heavy falls accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning is very likely over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura and over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya for the next five days.
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